US President Donald Trump has been ramping up pressure on Venezuela's leader, President Nicolás Maduro.
The Trump administration has doubled the reward for information leading to Maduro's capture, and its warships are within striking distance of Venezuela. Dozens of people have been killed in attacks on boats alleged to have been transporting drugs from the South American country.
Trump reportedly also gave Maduro an ultimatum to leave Venezuela, in a phone call the two men had on 21 November.
Who is Nicolás Maduro?
Nicolás Maduro rose to prominence under the leadership of left-wing President Hugo Chávez and his United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV). Maduro, a former bus driver and union leader, succeeded Chávez and has been president since 2013. During the 26 years that Chávez and Maduro have been in power, their party has gained control of key institutions, including the National Assembly, much of the judiciary, and the electoral council.
In 2024, the electoral council declared Maduro the winner of the presidential election, even though voting tallies collected by the opposition suggested that their candidate, Edmundo González, had won by a landslide. The US is one of many countries that declared the election illegitimate and recognized González as 'president-elect'. However, with Maduro firmly in control of the military, he has remained in power, and González has fled into exile for fear of arrest.
Why is Trump focusing on Venezuela?
Trump has made stopping immigration a priority during his second term in office and he blames Maduro for the arrival of a large number of Venezuelan migrants in the US. Since 2013, close to eight million Venezuelans are estimated to have fled the economic crisis and political repression in Venezuela, which have both worsened under Maduro. Most have fled to Latin American countries, but hundreds of thousands have gone to the US.
Without providing evidence, Trump has accused Maduro of 'emptying his prisons and insane asylums' and 'forcing' its inmates to migrate to the US. Trump has also focused on fighting the influx of drugs—especially fentanyl and cocaine—into the US.
As part of his war on drugs, he has designated two Venezuelan criminal groups—Tren de Aragua and Cartel de los Soles—as Foreign Terrorist Organisations and has alleged that the latter is led by Maduro himself. Maduro has vehemently denied these allegations and accused the US of using its 'war on drugs' as an excuse to try and depose him and seize Venezuela’s vast oil reserves.
Why has the US sent warships to the Caribbean?
The US has deployed 15,000 troops and a range of aircraft carriers, guided-missile destroyers, and amphibious assault ships to the Caribbean. The stated aim of the deployment—the largest since the US invasion of Panama in 1989—is to stop the flow of fentanyl and cocaine to the US. Since early September, US forces have carried out more than 20 strikes in international waters on boats alleged to have been carrying drugs, resulting in over 80 casualties.
The Trump administration argues it is engaged in a non-international armed conflict with alleged drug traffickers accused of conducting irregular warfare against the US. Legal experts assert that the categorization of those targeted as 'narco terrorists' does not necessarily legitimize military action against them.
Is Venezuela flooding the US with drugs?
Counternarcotic experts indicate that Venezuela is a relatively minor player in global drug trafficking, primarily acting as a transit country for drugs produced elsewhere. Colombia, its neighbor, is the world’s largest producer of cocaine, most of which is smuggled to the US by other routes, not through Venezuela. According to a US Drug Enforcement report from 2020, nearly three-quarters of the cocaine reaching the US is trafficked via the Pacific, with only a small percentage coming from Caribbean routes.
Fentanyl, a major concern for US authorities, is primarily produced in Mexico and reaches the US mainly over land through its southern border.
Could the US carry out strikes on Venezuela?
Trump confirmed that he spoke to Maduro on the phone on 21 November but did not disclose details of the conversation. Reports indicate that Trump gave Maduro a one-week ultimatum to depart Venezuela with his family. After the deadline elapsed, Trump declared the airspace around Venezuela closed.
While he has threatened to take action against Venezuelan drug traffickers 'by land,' no specifics have been outlined regarding how such an operation might proceed. Trump's press secretary has acknowledged various options are available, but no further details were provided. Military analysts note that the scale of the US naval deployment suggests preparation for something more significant than a simple counternarcotics operation.
